Pakistan is facing a water paradox: too much water locked in increasingly unstable glaciers, yet too little reliable water beneath the ground where millions depend on it. It is, indeed, a water crisis from two directions at once.
While climate change is altering the country’s frozen water reserves and increasing the potential for dangerous glacial events, another crisis is unfolding beneath across plains and cities. Groundwater – a crucial lifeline for farming and communities – is being extracted at rates that in many areas exceed sustainable availability.
The contrast is striking. It does not end in the mountains or plains alone. In the north, too much water can arrive too quickly. In the plains, too much water is being taken out too quickly. Both problems point to the same underlying challenge: Pakistan urgently needs better ways to monitor, manage, protect its water resources.
Water Crisis in Pakistan Deepens: Thousands of glaciers, thousands of warning signs
Pakistan is a land of striking contrasts and extraordinary ecological richness. From the icy summits of Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalayas to the fertile river plains, vast arid deserts, fragile coastal mangroves, and the sweeping shoreline of the Arabian Sea, the country hosts a remarkable range of ecosystems
Together, these diverse landscapes form Pakistan’s ecological balance, making the country one of the world’s important high-mountain regions. The scale is enormous. An official Pakistani inventory has identified 3,044 glacial lakes in the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya region of Pakistan, covering a combined area of about 134.8 square kilometres. Some of these lakes are potentially dangerous, as the country’s ecological balance stands at a critical crossroads.
Climate change, deforestation, water scarcity, pollution, biodiversity loss, unchecked urban expansion, and the increasing intensity of heatwaves and floods are placing unprecedented pressure on ecosystems across the country. Pakistan’s National Disaster Management Authority has identified GLOFs as a significant hazard in mountainous areas, particularly in Gilgit-Baltistan and upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. And the warning is not theoretical.
When a glacial lake suddenly releases its stored water, the resulting glacial lake outburst flood, or GLOF, can send a powerful surge through valleys downstream. Such floods can damage homes, roads, bridges, agricultural land and other infrastructure within a very short time.
In June 2026, SUPARCO identified 130 potentially dangerous glacial lakes whose outburst could threaten downstream settlements. The assessment was based on satellite imagery and was being shared with relevant authorities for risk management.
Climate change is changing the mountain water system
The problem is not simply that glaciers are melting. Climate change can alter the entire mountain environment – affecting snow accumulation, glacier melt, lake formation, slopes and the stability of natural barriers holding back glacial water. That means a changing glacier can create two very different problems.
Over the long term, continued ice loss can reduce the reliability of glacier-fed water supplies. In the short term, rapidly changing glaciers and expanding or unstable lakes can increase the risk of destructive floods. Pakistan therefore faces a difficult challenge: the glaciers must be protected as water resources while the hazards associated with changing glaciers must also be monitored.
Recent satellite monitoring illustrates why constant vigilance matters. A June 2026 assessment found that the number of observed unfrozen glacial lakes had increased from 24 to 40 as summer temperatures rose, although most remained within previously recorded maximum extents. Authorities were advised to maintain preparedness in downstream valleys.
The crisis does not end in the mountains
But Pakistan’s water story has another side – one that is much less visible. Beneath cities, villages and agricultural fields lies another enormous water reserve: groundwater. For millions of people, groundwater is a critical source of drinking water and irrigation. Pakistan’s Council of Research in Water Resources says groundwater plays a major role in irrigation, drinking water and industrial supply, while excessive abstraction has contributed to falling water tables in several areas.
The problem is especially visible in rapidly growing cities. In Lahore, for example, extensive groundwater extraction has contributed to declining water levels. PCRWR reports that around 1,800 public and private tube wells have been extracting large quantities of groundwater, while the city has also experienced a continuing decline in its water table. The same broader pressure is visible elsewhere. PCRWR research has highlighted groundwater depletion in major urban areas including Lahore, Rawalpindi and Islamabad, as well as severe depletion in parts of Balochistan.
Agriculture is putting additional pressure on groundwater
Pakistan’s water crisis cannot be separated from agriculture. The country’s agricultural economy depends heavily on irrigation, and groundwater has increasingly become a backup when canal supplies are inadequate or unreliable. PCRWR notes that Pakistan has more than one million tubewells, while continuous groundwater decline and salinity are already affecting agricultural land in some regions.
This creates a dangerous cycle. When surface water becomes insufficient, farmers turn to groundwater. When groundwater levels fall, deeper pumping may be required. That increases costs and can place even greater pressure on aquifers.
At the same time, urban expansion covers soil with roads, buildings and concrete, reducing the ability of rainfall to naturally infiltrate the ground. So even when heavy rain arrives, much of the water can quickly become runoff rather than replenishing the aquifer.
Pakistan’s water paradox
This brings the country’s two water crises together. In the mountains, water can become dangerously concentrated in unstable glacial lakes. In the plains, water can disappear underground faster than natural recharge can replace it. One is a problem of sudden excess. The other is a problem of long-term depletion.
Yet both are connected to a changing climate and to the way Pakistan manages its water resources. A country cannot secure its water future simply by building more infrastructure after disasters occur. It needs to understand where water is stored, how quickly it is changing and who depends upon it.
Monitoring could save lives – and water
One of the most important tools in this battle is information. Satellite imagery can help identify changes in glacial lakes. Weather stations can provide crucial information about temperature and precipitation in high-altitude areas. Groundwater monitoring can reveal where aquifers are declining and where extraction is becoming unsustainable.
Pakistan is already developing systems in these areas. PCRWR, for example, operates groundwater monitoring and management initiatives, including networks designed to track groundwater levels and quality. It also supports groundwater recharge projects using rainwater harvesting and infiltration systems.
Such efforts need to expand. More high-altitude weather stations, continuous glacier and glacial-lake monitoring, improved groundwater data and stronger coordination between scientists and disaster-management authorities could help transform water management from crisis response into long-term planning.
Turning rain into a resource
Pakistan also needs to become much better at capturing water when it arrives. Heavy rainfall and urban flooding may appear to be separate problems from groundwater depletion, but they can be connected. Instead of allowing rainwater to rapidly disappear into drains, cities can use rainwater harvesting, recharge wells, infiltration ponds, wetlands and permeable surfaces to allow more water to enter the ground.
PCRWR has already supported such approaches, including groundwater recharge and rainwater-harvesting projects in Punjab and Islamabad. The idea is simple: water that causes flooding today can potentially become groundwater tomorrow.
Protecting communities before disaster strikes
Glacial hazards require an equally proactive approach. Communities living downstream of dangerous glacial lakes need reliable early-warning systems, evacuation plans and clearly identified safe areas. Construction in high-risk riverbeds and flood channels should be carefully controlled. Roads, bridges and other infrastructure in vulnerable valleys need risk assessments that account for future climate conditions, not simply historical floods.
NDMA guidance has emphasized regular monitoring of weather and glacial-lake conditions and evacuation of communities from high-risk areas when necessary. Early warning can make the difference between a natural hazard and a humanitarian disaster.
A water-secure future requires a different approach
Pakistan cannot stop climate change on its own. But it can reduce the damage caused by a changing climate. That means treating glaciers not only as majestic mountains of ice but as critical components of national water security.
It means treating groundwater not as an endless underground reservoir but as a resource that must be carefully managed. It means investing in science, satellite monitoring, weather stations, groundwater measurement, rainwater harvesting and efficient irrigation.
And above all, it means recognising that Pakistan’s water crisis is no longer a problem for the future. It is unfolding now — from the glaciers of the north to the aquifers beneath its cities and farms. The country’s 13,032 glaciers are a reminder of how much water nature has stored for generations. Its falling groundwater levels are a warning of how quickly that security can be lost.
Pakistan’s challenge is no longer simply finding water. It is learning how to protect, store, monitor and wisely use every drop before climate change makes the task even harder.
