For centuries, the Himalayas have followed a rhythm that sustains both nature and human life. Winter snow accumulates on high peaks, glaciers release meltwater through spring and summer, and shepherds move their flocks between alpine meadows and warmer valleys. These seasonal cycles have shaped livelihoods, traditions and survival across the mountains. But what happens when the rhythm begins to change – and the seasons can no longer be trusted?
For Himalayan shepherds, this question is no longer theoretical. In October 2025, an avalanche swept away more than 100 sheep and goats belonging to shepherd Joginder Chand and his companions as they crossed the Jarol Jot pass in Himachal Pradesh, India. Nearly a year later, another alarming incident unfolded in late September 2026, when sudden heavy snowfall near Rupin Pass left approximately 2,000 sheep and goats feared buried beneath the snow.
These incidents reveal a troubling reality: environmental changes in the mountains are not simply about melting glaciers or rising temperatures. They are also about families losing their animals, livelihoods coming under pressure and traditional ways of life becoming increasingly difficult to sustain.
From the glaciers of Pakistan’s Gilgit-Baltistan to Nepal’s high-altitude valleys and the pastoral routes of northern India, the changing Himalayan environment presents interconnected challenges. Water supplies, fragile ecosystems, mountain hazards and rural livelihoods are influenced by the region’s changing climate. The mountains do not recognise political borders, and the climate crisis will not stop them either. For Pakistan and Nepal, this shared vulnerability presents an opportunity to strengthen scientific cooperation, improve disaster preparedness and protect the communities whose lives depend on these extraordinary landscapes.
Himalayan Climate Crisis: Melting Glaciers, Rising Risks and Shared Waters
When mountain seasons become less predictable, the consequences can extend far beyond the high peaks. Changes in snowfall, glacier melt and rainfall can influence river flows, agricultural production, drinking-water supplies and the stability of mountain slopes.
The Hindu Kush Himalaya, often described as the Third Pole because of its enormous stores of snow and ice, is central to this challenge. Its glaciers and snowfields sustain major river systems that support agriculture, hydropower, ecosystems and communities across Asia.
Yet these natural water reserves are under growing pressure. According to a landmark 2023 assessment by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), glaciers across the Hindu Kush Himalaya disappeared 65 per cent faster during 2011–2020 than during the preceding decade. The report warned that continued warming could have far-reaching consequences for water security, biodiversity and mountain communities.
A subsequent ICIMOD assessment published in 2026 reported that the region’s glaciers lost approximately 12 per cent of their area between 1990 and 2020, although the scale of change varies considerably between mountain ranges and locations. These findings highlight the growing pressure on an environmental system that millions of people depend upon for their immediate survival.
Pakistan has a particularly strong stake in the future of the Himalayan and adjoining mountain ranges. The Indus River system supports much of the country’s irrigated agriculture and hydropower generation. Seasonal snow and glacier melt contribute significantly to its water cycle, making changes in the timing and volume of meltwater important for irrigation planning, reservoir management and flood forecasting.
The risks become more complicated when intense rainfall, rapid snowmelt and unstable mountain slopes interact. Under certain conditions, these factors can contribute to destructive floods, landslides and other hazards that damage roads, bridges, settlements and agricultural land.
Pakistan’s catastrophic 2022 floods demonstrated the human and economic consequences of extreme flooding. According to the World Bank-led Post-Disaster Needs Assessment, approximately 33 million people were affected and more than 1,730 lost their lives. Damage was estimated at US$14.9 billion, economic losses reached approximately US$15.2 billion, and reconstruction needs were estimated at US$16.3 billion. These figures illustrate the scale of the challenge facing a country whose water security and agricultural economy are closely linked to environmental conditions.
Nepal faces related risks in its glacier-fed river basins, where glacial lake outburst floods can threaten communities and infrastructure downstream. These events occur when water held in a glacial lake is suddenly released, potentially sending destructive surges into valleys below.
Although the two countries have different geographical conditions and hazard profiles, both must prepare for a changing mountain environment whose consequences extend well beyond the high peaks. The lesson is clear: climate adaptation requires reliable scientific information, effective early-warning systems and cooperation between the institutions responsible for managing water and disaster risks.
When Seasonal Migration Becomes a Dangerous Journey
For Himalayan pastoral communities, the mountains are much more than a spectacular landscape. They provide grazing grounds, sustain livestock and preserve cultural traditions that have developed over generations. The Gaddi shepherds of Himachal Pradesh illustrate this intimate relationship between people and their environment. For generations, these pastoral communities have moved their flocks between high-altitude summer pastures and warmer winter grazing grounds.
Their journeys depend on a detailed understanding of seasonal conditions. Shepherds must judge when snow will melt, where fresh grass will emerge, which water sources will remain available and when mountain passes can be crossed safely. This knowledge, accumulated through years of observation and experience, has helped communities navigate demanding mountain terrain. However, changing environmental conditions can make familiar decisions more difficult.
Unusual snowfall, shifting precipitation patterns, temperature fluctuations and sudden extreme weather can disrupt grazing schedules and make migration routes hazardous. A pass that appears safe may become dangerous after heavy snowfall. A delayed journey can leave animals without sufficient pasture, while an unexpected storm can expose both shepherds and livestock to life-threatening conditions.
The reported avalanche involving Joginder Chand’s flock in October 2025 illustrates the devastating consequences of mountain hazards. Losing more than 100 animals represents far more than an immediate financial setback. For families whose livelihoods depend on livestock, such losses can threaten years of work and undermine household security. Moreover, the incident near Rupin Pass in September 2026 provided another stark warning.
Media reports described approximately 2,000 sheep and goats as feared buried following sudden heavy snowfall. Because the reported losses were preliminary, the final number of animals lost should not be treated as confirmed without subsequent verification.
Neither incident, on its own, establishes that climate change caused the avalanche or snowfall event. Avalanches depend on several interacting factors, including the amount and structure of snow, temperature, slope conditions and local weather.
Nevertheless, climate change can alter mountain snow and ice conditions, complicating the assessment of hazards and the planning of seasonal journeys. Understanding the contribution of climate change to particular events requires location-specific scientific evidence.
The wider concern is that pastoralists are being asked to make difficult decisions in an environment where familiar seasonal patterns may no longer provide the same degree of certainty. The consequences extend beyond individual households.
Pastoralism supports local economies, preserves traditional ecological knowledge and maintains connections between communities and mountain landscapes. If seasonal migration becomes dangerous, the pressure may threaten not only livestock and income but also a cultural heritage that has endured for centuries.
Protecting these communities therefore requires more than emergency assistance after a disaster. It demands better access to weather forecasts, reliable information about dangerous routes, livestock protection measures and adaptation strategies developed with pastoralists themselves.
Nature’s Warning: An Ecological Crisis, Not Just a Climate Story
The Himalayan climate crisis is often described through glacier measurements, temperature records and disaster statistics. These indicators are essential, but they reveal only part of the story. Mountain ecosystems function through relationships among snow, ice, soil, vegetation, wildlife, water and people. When one component changes, the consequences can spread throughout the system.
Warmer conditions can alter the extent and duration of snow cover, influence the timing of snowmelt and change the availability of water for vegetation. Shifting precipitation patterns can affect pasture growth, while erosion and unstable slopes can threaten fragile mountain habitats.
These changes matter directly to pastoral communities. Their movements follow the availability of grass and water, while their traditional knowledge reflects generations of observation of local landscapes. However, knowledge developed under familiar seasonal conditions can become harder to apply when those conditions change rapidly. Experience remains valuable, but it must increasingly be supported by reliable forecasts and timely hazard information.
This is where climate science and local knowledge can reinforce one another. Scientists can contribute weather forecasts, glacier monitoring and hazard assessments. Shepherds can provide detailed observations about changing snow conditions, pasture availability, water sources and the difficulties of particular migration routes.
Bringing these perspectives together can help authorities understand local risks effectively and develop adaptation measures that reflect conditions on the ground. Protecting mountain ecosystems therefore requires an integrated approach that connects environmental conservation, disaster preparedness, livelihood protection and community participation. The goal should not simply be to respond when a disaster occurs, but to reduce vulnerability before next emergency threatens lives.
Himalayan Diplomacy: An Opportunity for Pakistan and Nepal
Pakistan and Nepal have an opportunity to turn their shared mountain vulnerability into practical climate cooperation. Both countries face challenges associated with glacier-fed rivers, extreme weather, fragile mountain ecosystems and communities whose livelihoods depend on environmental conditions. Their experiences differ, but each offers lessons that may help the other strengthen its approach to climate adaptation.
Nepal has developed experience in glacial lake monitoring, glacial lake outburst flood preparedness and community-based early-warning initiatives. Pakistan, meanwhile, has extensive experience in river-basin management, irrigation, flood forecasting and responding to large-scale flooding.
Neither country can simply copy the other’s systems. Mountain terrain, institutional arrangements, available resources and local needs must be considered. Nevertheless, exchanging scientific knowledge and practical experience could strengthen preparedness in both countries. A Pakistan–Nepal climate cooperation initiative could begin with five practical priorities.
1. Share glacier and hydrological data
Meteorological agencies, water authorities and research institutions could explore exchanging relevant information about snowfall, glacier conditions, river flows and extreme weather. Improved access to comparable information could support scientific research, long-term water planning and more effective assessments of mountain hazards. Any data-sharing initiative would need clear arrangements for data quality, accessibility and institutional responsibilities.
2. Strengthen early-warning systems
Timely warnings can make the difference between a manageable emergency and a devastating disaster. Pakistan and Nepal could exchange lessons on communicating flood and mountain-hazard warnings, preparing vulnerable communities and ensuring that information reaches people in remote valleys. Such collaboration could include technical workshops, joint training exercises and the exchange of good practices in community preparedness.
3. Protect mountain livelihoods
Climate adaptation must account for the people whose income and cultural identity depend on mountain ecosystems. Both countries could support research into the effects of changing environmental conditions on pastoralism, mountain agriculture, livestock and local water supplies. Bringing shepherds, farmers, scientists and disaster-management officials together could help identify practical measures to reduce losses and make traditional livelihoods more resilient.
4. Expand scientific and research partnerships
Universities and environmental research institutions could collaborate on glacier retreat, changing precipitation, avalanche susceptibility, glacial lake hazards, ecosystem restoration and climate-resilient livelihoods. Joint research would help identify both shared challenges and important regional differences. It could also strengthen the evidence available to policymakers when deciding where to direct adaptation funding and technical support.
5. Give mountain communities a stronger voice
Climate diplomacy should not remain confined to government offices and scientific conferences. Shepherds, farmers and other mountain residents possess valuable knowledge about local landscapes and changing environmental conditions.
Their experiences can help researchers identify emerging risks and help authorities develop more realistic adaptation plans. Meaningful participation also requires that communities receive accessible information, opportunities to influence decisions and practical support for implementing adaptation measures.
These proposals would not replace international climate action or eliminate the risks associated with global warming. Instead, they would build on existing regional efforts, including the work of ICIMOD, which brings together eight regional member countries to address shared challenges across the Hindu Kush Himalaya.
For Pakistan and Nepal, cooperation on glaciers, water security and mountain resilience could also demonstrate the value of constructive regional engagement around shared environmental interests.
From Climate Vulnerability to Mountain Resilience
International cooperation is important, but lasting resilience also depends on decisions made in mountain villages, grazing grounds and river valleys. Pastoral communities need timely weather warnings, safe migration information, access to emergency assistance and practical measures to reduce livestock losses. Local authorities can work with shepherds to identify dangerous routes, establish communication systems and prepare contingency plans for sudden changes in weather.
Mountain settlements also need resilient roads, bridges, water systems and evacuation arrangements. Infrastructure planning should account for changing flood risks, unstable slopes and the possibility that extreme weather may cut off remote communities.
At the same time, protecting forests, restoring degraded landscapes and managing grazing pressure sustainably can support healthier mountain ecosystems. Such measures cannot prevent every avalanche or flood, but they can contribute to ecological resilience and help communities cope with environmental stress.
Adaptation must also recognise that mountain communities are not merely victims of climate change. They are custodians of valuable ecological knowledge and potential partners in conservation. Supporting them means protecting their economic security, respecting their experience and helping preserve the cultural traditions that connect people with the mountains.
Ultimately, resilience requires a combination of scientific understanding, effective institutions, community participation and sustained investment. None of these measures can substitute for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, but together they can help communities prepare for climate impacts that are affecting their lives.
Conclusion: The Mountains Are Changing. Will We Respond Together?
From the glaciers of Gilgit-Baltistan to Nepal’s high-altitude valleys and the migration routes of Himalayan shepherds, the signs of environmental change are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. Glaciers are retreating, seasonal conditions are becoming harder to predict, and mountain hazards threaten communities whose livelihoods depend on the natural rhythms of the landscape.
For pastoralists, the stakes are immediate: an unexpected storm can mean lost livestock, lost income and an uncertain future. These challenges connect water security, food production, biodiversity and human safety across a region that cannot be understood through political borders alone.
Pakistan and Nepal cannot stop global warming through bilateral cooperation, but they can strengthen scientific partnerships, improve disaster preparedness and protect vulnerable mountain communities. Their efforts can complement wider regional collaboration and the international action required to reduce emissions and finance climate adaptation. The Himalayas have sustained human life for centuries, but their resources and rhythms cannot be taken for granted indefinitely.
The future of these mountains will depend not only on how much ice remains in their glaciers, but also on whether the people and nations connected to them are prepared to work together. By listening to mountain communities, learning from scientific evidence and turning shared vulnerabilities into practical cooperation, Pakistan and Nepal can help build a more resilient future for both people and nature.
Sources and further reading
Use these links in your published article to support the relevant claims:
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD). Add the direct link to the specific 2026 glacier assessment before publication.
World Bank — Pakistan flood damages and economic losses over US$30 billion (28 October 2022).
