The southwest monsoon withdraws below normal rainfall across South Asia, leaving millions of farmers behind the agricultural cycle they dependent on for crops produce through generations. The warning was even more pronounced in India, where more than half of the country remained under dry or drought conditions. The monsoon drought and prolonged dry spells across several states left farmers falling behind in paddy transplantation.
A recent assessment by India’s Mahalanobis National Crop Forecast Centre (NCFC), based on rainfall data, dry-spell information, soil moisture, vegetation indices and satellite radar observations, shows significant signs of crop and water stress across several regions. The country not simply experienced a story of too little rain everywhere; the more important problem in several agricultural regions was the long gap between rainfall events.
For rain-dependent agriculture, such gaps can be critical. A field may receive substantial rain at one point in the season, but if weeks follow without sufficient rainfall, soil moisture can decline, crops can become stressed and farmers may struggle to maintain the timing of agricultural operations.
Monsoon Drought in South Asia: A Monsoon That Arrived – But Didn’t Always Arrive When Needed
Monsoon is more than a season of rain across South Asia. It is part of the region’s life-support system that is welcomed every year with a hope to replenish reservoirs, nourish crops, cool scorching temperatures, and sustain ecosystems that millions depend upon.
Rivers and reservoirs depend on seasonal rains, groundwater is replenished, and rural economies begin another agricultural cycle. However, the arrival, timing and distribution of monsoon rainfall can determine whether a crop flourishes or fails. When the rains become delayed, or interrupted by long dry spells or unevenly distributed, the consequences can spread far beyond the fields, often evolving into humanitarian emergency across several regions.
The story begins in much the same way across Pakistan, where alongside the blessings of monsoon season comes a familiar fear. Torrential downpours, floods, landslides, collapsing homes, and deadly lightning strikes have become recurring features of the country’s rainy season.
Within days, rivers swell beyond safe levels, flash floods inundate communities, rescue teams are deployed across multiple districts, and families mourn the loss of loved ones. Weather experts continue to warn that further rainfall could worsen Pakistan Monsoon conditions in vulnerable areas.
How The Soil Remembers the Missing Rain
The effects of prolonged dry spells are visible beneath the surface. The rainfall deficit is reflected in soil moisture conditions. NCFC’s analysis of root-zone soil moisture, using observations from NASA’s Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite, found below-average moisture in parts of Karnataka, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, Gujarat, western Madhya Pradesh, northern Bihar on Sept 17, compared with 10-year average for 2016–2025.
The data show that soil moisture in parts of Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, eastern Madhya Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh and Nagaland was at or above the average. In contrast, soil moisture was below the 10-year average in parts of Karnataka, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, Gujarat, western Madhya Pradesh and northern Bihar.
This Uneven Pattern is Important. It shows that a weak or irregular monsoon does not affect an entire country in the same way. Local rainfall, irrigation, soil conditions, crops and geography can determine whether communities experience water stress or manage to withstand a dry period.
From Green Fields to Stressed Vegetation
Satellites are also revealing changes in the landscape. NCFC examined the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), an indicator of vegetation greenness and activity, together with the Land Surface Water Index (LSWI). This is why rainfall totals alone do not always tell the complete story.
Between August 29 and September 13, NDVI values in parts of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu were below both the same period in 2025 and the 2021–25 average. In parts of Rajasthan’s Jaisalmer, Bikaner and Barmer districts and Gujarat’s Kutch region, NDVI declines exceeded 30% in some areas. Yet satellite signals must be interpreted carefully. NCFC itself cautioned that some apparent vegetation anomalies can have other causes, including cloud-related observation problems or flooding.
Nature rarely speaks through a single indicator. Rainfall, soil moisture, vegetation, crop growth and water storage must be examined together.
Crops are Beginning to Respond
The agricultural response is already visible in some parts of India. Satellite radar observations indicate delays or reductions in paddy transplantation in several areas. In parts of Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand, the extent or timing of paddy cultivation was below previous-year levels. West Bengal also recorded transplantation delays in several districts, while parts of Bihar experienced later or slightly reduced paddy planting.
In some places, farmers have also shifted away from paddy towards alternative crops. Such changes demonstrate how closely agriculture follows the availability of water. When rainfall becomes unreliable, farmers may have to change what they plant, when they plant it and how much land they cultivate.
This is Not Only An Indian Story
India’s experience offers a window into a much larger South Asian reality. The monsoon system crosses national boundaries, and its influence extends across Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan and Sri Lanka, as well. The World Bank says annual monsoon provides more than 70% of South Asia’s rainfall and affects agriculture, hydropower, infrastructure, aviation and tourism.
Pakistan, for example, depends on seasonal rainfall alongside rivers, reservoirs and irrigation systems to support its agricultural economy. Bangladesh receives enormous amounts of annual rainfall and has major agricultural areas closely linked to seasonal water availability.
Nepal and Bhutan depend on monsoon precipitation alongside Himalayan snow and glacier-fed river systems, while Sri Lanka experiences distinct monsoon influences that shape agriculture and water resources.
The region therefore shares something more profound than a weather pattern. It shares a water system. And when that system becomes more unpredictable, the consequences can travel across borders.
Too Much Rain in one Place, Too Little in Another
One of the greatest challenges of a changing climate is that water stress does not always look like a simple absence of rain. A region can experience drought while another receives destructive rainfall.
The same monsoon system that sustains crops can also produce floods, landslides and erosion when rainfall arrives in intense bursts. The World Bank has described this dual nature of South Asian climate risks: monsoon variability can affect both water availability and agricultural productivity, while extreme rainfall can produce devastating floods.
This creates a difficult agricultural reality. Farmers need rain – but not simply rain. They need rain at the right time, in the right amount and with enough continuity to support crops.
A warning written in the soil
The current Indian drought signals should therefore be viewed as more than a seasonal agricultural story. They are a reminder of how dependent human societies remain on natural rhythms.
For centuries, farmers have learned to read clouds, winds, soil and seasons. Modern technology now gives us another way of reading the landscape – from satellites measuring vegetation to instruments monitoring soil moisture.
But the message is remarkably similar. When the soil dries, vegetation weakens. When reservoirs fall, water security becomes more fragile. When rainfall gaps lengthen, crops suffer. And when farmers can no longer rely on familiar seasonal patterns, they must make increasingly difficult choices.
The future of the monsoon matters far beyond rainfall
South Asia is home to billions of people, and the monsoon remains one of the region’s most important natural systems. A changing climate does not necessarily mean that every monsoon season will simply become drier. Instead, rainfall patterns can become more irregular, increasing possibility of longer dry spells alongside episodes of intense rainfall.
That makes resilience essential. Better water storage, efficient irrigation, improved soil management, drought-tolerant crops, better weather forecasting and stronger regional cooperation can all help communities prepare for greater uncertainty.
The goal is not to control the monsoon. It is to understand it better – and to build societies capable of living with its changing rhythms. Because across South Asia, the monsoon is not merely something that falls from the sky.
It is woven into the soil beneath our feet, the rivers beside our communities, the crops in our fields and the food on our tables. When the monsoon changes, life changes with it.
Note: The article is based on recent assessments and publicly available climate, rainfall, soil-moisture and satellite data. The interpretation and narrative have been independently written for The Secrets of Nature.
References:
Down To Earth – Drought monitor: Monsoon withdrawal & growing drought crisis across states, Vivek Mishra, 24 September 2026.
World Bank – Climate Change: South Asia Regional Integration. The World Bank notes that the annual monsoon provides more than 70% of South Asia’s rainfall and affects agriculture, hydropower, infrastructure and other sectors.
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) – South Asian Climate Outlook Forum. WMO describes the southwest monsoon as a major driver of socioeconomic well-being across South Asia and notes that its fluctuations can contribute to droughts and floods.
