India’s monsoon is beginning to falter – and the warning may reach beyond borders to Pakistan. The two countries sit beneath the same vast South Asian monsoon system, where changes thousands of kilometres away can alter winds, moisture and atmospheric circulation that determine when – and where – rain falls.
Although the country does not necessarily experience the same rainfall deficit as India during El Niño years, India’s weakening monsoon is a warning for Pakistan. If El Niño continues strengthening, the question for Pakistan is no longer simply how much rain will we receive? It is whether the country is prepared for a monsoon that may become increasingly unreliable – bringing longer dry spells and greater pressure on water supplies and agriculture, yet potentially producing intense bursts of rainfall when atmosphere finally releases its accumulated moisture.
India’s Weakening Monsoon for Pakistan: What Could It Mean for South Asia’s Water and Food Security
India is heading toward what could be its weakest monsoon in nearly two decades. According to Reuters, India’s June–September rainfall could finish around 15% below the long-term average, potentially making 2026 the country’s driest monsoon season since 2009. The deficit could deepen in September, when rainfall is particularly important for crops reaching maturity and for replenishing soil moisture before winter growing season.
The consequences may not stop at its borders. Behind the weakening rains is a familiar force in the climate system: El Niño. According to a research by Pakistan’s Meteorological Department has found a tendency for El Niño to suppress summer monsoon rainfall in the country.
That makes India’s weakening monsoon an important regional climate signal. Therefore, for Pakistan, this development deserves close attention. The countries share the South Asian monsoon system, and changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation can influence rainfall patterns across national borders.
Pakistan should not expect an exact repeat of India’s rainfall deficit, but the emerging pattern is a reminder that a strengthening El Niño can place additional pressure on a region already facing water stress, extreme heat and increasingly unpredictable rainfall.
A monsoon that feeds millions
The South Asian monsoon is far more than a seasonal change in the weather. It is one of the foundations of the region’s food and water systems. In India, monsoon rainfall supplies around 70% of annual precipitation, making the June–September season critical for agriculture. Poor rainfall can reduce crop yields, lower rural incomes and push food prices higher.
Pakistan is similarly dependent on summer rainfall. According to Meteorological Department, the southwest summer monsoon contributes roughly 45% of Pakistan annual rainfall between July and September. Its importance varies considerably from region to region, but it is particularly significant for agriculture, river flows, reservoirs and groundwater recharge. That makes a weakening monsoon more than a weather story. It becomes a story about food, water, electricity and livelihoods.
El Niño is changing the atmospheric equation
El Niño occurs when unusually warm sea-surface temperatures develop across the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. This apparently distant ocean warming can reorganise atmospheric circulation across thousands of kilometres. The result is rainfall and heat redistribution around the planet.
India is especially vulnerable because El Niño has historically been associated with weaker Indian summer monsoons. Reuters reports that the current El Niño is strengthening and is expected to intensify further in September, increasing concern that India’s rainfall deficit could widen.
Pakistan can also feel its effects. According to the research published through the Pakistan Meteorological Department has found a tendency toward reduced summer monsoon rainfall during El Niño years. One analysis of rainfall from Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Kashmir has found that June, July and September showed particularly strong probabilities of below-average rainfall during El Niño years. Another study by the Department has found that strong El Niño events have frequently been associated with reduced monsoon rainfall, although the relationship is not simple or uniform across the country. And that qualification matters.
Pakistan is not simply following India. It would be misleading to say that because India is heading toward a 15% rainfall deficit, Pakistan will automatically experience the same thing. The country’s rainfall depends on complicated combination of climate drivers.
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) can strengthen or weaken the influence of El Niño. The position of the monsoon trough, movements of low-pressure systems, Arabian Sea moisture, Bay of Bengal disturbances, western disturbances can all alter rainfall over Pakistan.
Recent scientific research has found that the relationship between ENSO and Pakistan’s rainfall is weaker and more complicated than the classic India–El Niño relationship. Some El Niño years have produced drought, while others have produced relatively normal or even wet conditions.
Pakistan’s mountains add another layer of complexity. The Himalaya, Karakoram and Hindu Kush can transform atmospheric moisture into highly localised rainfall, while northern valleys can experience intense cloudbursts even when seasonal rainfall elsewhere is below normal.
This means a weak monsoon does not necessarily mean a quiet monsoon. A season can produce less total rainfall while still delivering destructive episodes of extreme rain. That distinction is becoming increasingly important.
Pakistan is already seeing an uneven monsoon. The country’s rainfall pattern in 2026 illustrates this complexity. Pakistan’s Meteorological Department reported that July rainfall was 11% below normal nationally, although conditions varied sharply between regions. Gilgit-Baltistan recorded above-normal rainfall, while Sindh and Balochistan were much drier. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa was about 8.6% below normal.
At the same time, Pakistan has experienced episodes of intense monsoon rainfall capable of producing flooding. During late July and August, the Flood Forecasting Division issued repeated warnings for heavy rainfall, rising river flows and flash flooding across parts of Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Kashmir and the upper river catchments. Moreover, the Pakistan Meteorological Department has forecast another monsoon spell across the country from August 27, with strong winds. This apparent contradiction – too little rainfall overall but too much rain in short bursts – may become increasingly important in a warming climate.
Rainfall is not useful simply because it falls. Its timing, intensity and location determine whether it replenishes soil and reservoirs or instead rushes through rivers and urban drainage systems as destructive floodwater.
The biggest danger may be agriculture
For farmers, September can be critical. India’s weather officials are warning that a dry September could damage crops including cotton, soybean, maize and pulses while reducing the soil moisture needed by winter crops such as wheat and rapeseed. Pakistan faces a similar vulnerability. A reduction in late-monsoon rainfall can affect soil moisture, reservoirs and groundwater recharge just as farmers prepare for the next agricultural cycle.
Pakistan’s agricultural economy depends heavily on irrigation, and much of that irrigation ultimately depends on the Indus River system. When rainfall patterns change, the consequences can move through the entire water chain – from mountain snow and rainfall to rivers, reservoirs, canals, groundwater and farms.
A weak monsoon therefore does not simply mean fewer rainy days. It can mean greater pressure on irrigation systems, increased groundwater pumping and higher competition for water.
The food-price connection
Water shortages can eventually become food-price problems. If crops receive insufficient moisture, yields can fall. Farmers may respond by increasing irrigation where water is available, raising production costs. If groundwater levels decline, pumping becomes more expensive.
If reservoirs receive less inflow, competition between agriculture, cities and energy production can intensify. And when production falls across several major agricultural regions at the same time, food markets can respond quickly. This is why India’s weakening monsoon matters to Pakistan even beyond the weather.
The countries are part of the same interconnected South Asian climate and food system. A major regional rainfall anomaly can affect agricultural markets, commodity prices and water security far beyond the location where the rain – or lack of it – occurs.
Pakistan needs to prepare for both drought and flood
The lesson from the 2026 monsoon should not be simply that Pakistan needs “more rain.” It needs more reliable water. That requires improving rainwater harvesting, protecting wetlands and watersheds, restoring natural drainage systems, improving irrigation efficiency and reducing unnecessary groundwater extraction. Farmers also need better access to seasonal forecasts and climate-resilient crops.
Cities require stronger drainage systems and floodplain management, because intense rainfall can overwhelm urban areas even during a season that is relatively dry overall. Pakistan’s northern mountains require particular attention. Forest degradation, unstable slopes and changing precipitation patterns can increase the consequences of intense rainfall, while reduced precipitation can intensify water stress later in the season.
A warning written in the clouds
India’s projected 15% monsoon deficit is not a forecast for Pakistan. But it is a warning about the kind of climate uncertainty South Asia is increasingly facing. El Niño is capable of shifting rainfall patterns across enormous distances. Pakistan has historically experienced weaker summer monsoons during many El Niño years, although the relationship is complicated by other climate systems.
And climate change is adding another layer of uncertainty. A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, potentially intensifying heavy rainfall when conditions are favourable, while higher temperatures also increase evaporation and water demand during dry periods. The result is a dangerous paradox:
South Asia can become wetter in extreme bursts and drier between them. For Pakistan, that means the real challenge is no longer simply predicting whether the monsoon will be strong or weak. It is learning how to live with a monsoon that is becoming less predictable, more uneven and increasingly consequential.
India’s struggling 2026 monsoon may therefore be more than an Indian agricultural problem. It is a glimpse of the wider climate challenge facing South Asia – where a few degrees of warming in a distant Pacific Ocean can eventually influence the water flowing through the fields, rivers and cities of the subcontinent.
